How do pandemics end? History suggests diseases fade but are almost never truly gone

Nükhet Varlik, University of South Carolina

When will the pandemic end? All these months in, with over 37 million COVID-19 cases and more than 1 million deaths globally, you may be wondering, with increasing exasperation, how long this will continue.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, epidemiologists and public health specialists have been using mathematical models to forecast the future in an effort to curb the coronvirus’s spread. But infectious disease modeling is tricky. Epidemiologists warn that “odels are not crystal balls,” and even sophisticated versions, like those that combine forecasts or use machine learning, can’t necessarily reveal when the pandemic will end or how many people will die.

As a historian who studies disease and public health, I suggest that instead of looking forward for clues, you can look back to see what brought past outbreaks to a close — or didn’t.
Where we are now in the course of the pandemic
In the early days of the pandemic, many people hoped the coronavirus would simply fade away. Some argued that it would disappear on its own with the summer heat. Others claimed that herd immunity would kick in once enough people had been infected. But none of that has happened.

A combination of public health efforts to contain and mitigate the pandemic — from rigorous testing and contact tracing to social distancing and wearing masks — have been proven to help.

read full article at:

--

--

--

Owner/PD @Cali.FM — Entreneur, Publicist. Former NBC/CNBC KCAA On-Air Media Personality “CALI’S BEST RADIO SHOW”

Love podcasts or audiobooks? Learn on the go with our new app.

Recommended from Medium

Prediction #1: We are not going back to close to pre-Covid normal until at least May/June 2021…

Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 May Only Last 2–3 Months, Study Says

Corona Death Rate in Indonesia Drops 95.8% in 2 Months, Here’s the Data

Covid-19: de onderbelichte gezondheidsrisico’s voor kinderen en jongeren.

STORY OF CORONAVIRUS

Latest Trends in Celebrating Wedding Anniversaries in 2020

Are the COVID Vaccines Causing Damage?

Eshani Karu: Update Covid-19 — Working from Home

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
Lashaun Turner

Lashaun Turner

Owner/PD @Cali.FM — Entreneur, Publicist. Former NBC/CNBC KCAA On-Air Media Personality “CALI’S BEST RADIO SHOW”

More from Medium

My Sin was Too Great To be Forgiven!

The Mother Wound

black text on off white background that says “At the root of my anxiety I found human beings who claimed to love me.” — Warsan Shire

Preparing her for the other man

See how they did our friend Martin?